Jeffrey A. Friedman

I am the author of The Commander-in-Chief Test: Public Opinion and the Politics of Image-Making in U.S. Foreign Policy (Cornell, 2023), which is part of Cornell's "Studies in Security Affairs" book series. It examines how voters determine which leaders are "fit to be commander-in-chief" and shows that these debates steer U.S. foreign policy in a direction that is more hawkish than what voters want.

I am also the author of War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Oxford, 2019), which is part of Oxford's "Bridging the Gap" book series. It explains how how foreign policy-makers systematically avoid assessing the uncertainty that surrounds strategic decisions and demonstrates that this practice reflects widespread misconceptions about the logic, psychology, and politics of probabilistic reasoning. War and Chance received the 2020 Peter Katzenstein Prize for an outstanding "first book" on international relations, comparative politics, or political economy.

My articles have been published by outlets such as the American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, International Security, and World Politics. I received my Ph.D from the Harvard Kennedy School in 2013. I have held fellowships at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the Tobin Project, the Dickey Center for International Understanding, and the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, France.