Justin S. Mankin

Assistant Professor
Academic Appointments

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography
Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Earth Sciences
Affiliate, Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, & Society (EEES)
Adjunct Associate Research Scientist, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Co-lead National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Drought Task Force

Mankin's research on climate variability and change is motivated by the risks global warming poses to ecosystems and people. Using both observations and process-based models, his efforts focus on constraining three of the major sources of uncertainty in climate changes, past, present, and future: the chaos innate to the climate system, the complexity of how people and ecosystems induce and respond to climate stress, and how model choices influence model answers. In his previous career, Dr. Mankin worked overseas as an intelligence officer.

113A Fairchild
HB 6017
Earth Sciences
Ph.D. Stanford University
M.P.A. Columbia University
M.Sc. London School of Economics
B.A. Columbia University

Selected Publications

Mankin, J. S.,  I. Simpson, A. Hoell, R. Fu, J. Lisonbee, A. Sheffield, D. Barrie (2021). NOAA Drought Task Force Report on the 2020–2021 Southwestern U.S. Drought. NOAA Drought Task Force, MAPP, and NIDIS.

Scheff, J., J. S. Mankin, S. Coats, & H. Liu, CO2-plant eects do not account for the gap between dryness indices and projected dryness impacts in CMIP5 or CMIP6, Environmental Research Letters, (2021) 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fd.

McDermid, S. S., B. I. Cook, M. DeKauwe, J. S. Mankin, J. E. Smerdon, A. P. Williams, R. Seager, M. Puma, I. Aleinov, M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko, Disentangling the regional climate impacts of competing vegetation responses to elevated [CO2], Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, (2021) 10.1029/2020JD034108.

Coffel, E., & J. S. Mankin, Thermal power generation is disadvantaged in a warming world, Environmental Research Letters, (2021) 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4a8.

Mankin, J. S., F. Lehner, S. Coats, K. McKinnon (2020). The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making, Earth's Future10.1029/2020EF001610

Callahan, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2020). The influence of internal climate variability on projections of synoptically-driven Beijing haze, Geophysical Research Letters10.1029/2020GL088548

Cook, B. I., J. S. Mankin, K. M. Marvel, A. P. Williams, J. E. Smerdon, K. J. Anchukaitis (2020). Twenty-first century drought projections from the CMIP6 forcing scenarios, Earth's Future10.1029/2019EF001461

Qin, Y., J. T. Abatzoglou, S. Siebert, L. S. Huning, A. AghaKouchak, J. S. Mankin, C. Hong, D. Tong, S. J. Davis, N. D. Mueller (2020). Agricultural vulnerability to changing snowmelt, Nature Climate Change10.1038/s41558-020-0746-8

He, Y. (P), E. Lee, J. S. Mankin (2020). Seasonal tropospheric cooling over Northeastern China associated with cropland expansion, Environmental Research Letters10.1088/1748-9326/ab6616

Winter, J. M., H. Huang (G), E. C. Osterberg, J. S. Mankin (2020). Anthropogenic impacts on the exceptional precipitation of 2018 in the Mid-Atlantic United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0172.1

Lehner, F., A. W. Wood, J. A. Vano, D. M. Lawrence, M. P. Clark, J. S. Mankin (2019). The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models, Nature Climate Change10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x

Mankin, J. S., R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams (2019). Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change, Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/s41561-019-0480-x 

Coffel, E., B. Keith, C. Lesk, R. M. Horton, E. Bower, J. Lee, J. S. Mankin (2019). Future Hot and Dry Years Worsen Nile Basin Water Scarcity Despite Projected Precipitation Increases, Earth's Future10.1029/2019EF001247.

Coffel, E., R. M. Horton, J. M. Winter, J. S. Mankin (2019). Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures paradoxically dampen increases in extreme humid-heat, Environmental Research Letters10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b7

Schultz, K. & J. S. Mankin (2019). Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub-Saharan Africa, American Journal of Political Science10.1111/ajps.12425

Bishop, D. A., A. P. Williams, R. Seager, A. M. Fiore, B. I. Cook, J. S. Mankin, D. Singh, J. E. Smerdon, M. P. Rao (2019). Investigating the causes of increased 20th-century precipitation over the southeastern United States, Journal of Climate 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0244.1

Mankin, J. S. , R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams, R. M. Horton (2018). Blue water tradeoffs with CO2-enriched ecosystems, Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2018GL07705

Trugman, A. T., D. Medvigy, J. S. Mankin, W. R. L. Anderegg (2018). Soil moisture drought as a major driver of carbon cycle uncertainty, Geophysical Research Letters10.1029/2018GL078131

Cook, B. I., J. S. Mankin, K. Anchukaitis (2018). Climate change and drought: from past to future, Current Climate Change Reports 10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2

Skinner, C. B., C. J. Poulsen, J. S. Mankin (2018). Amplification of heat extremes by plant CO2 physiological forcing, Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-018-03472-w 

Diffenbaugh, N. S., D. Singh, J. S. Mankin (2018). Probability of unprecedented climate events: comparing historical changes with the UN aspirational targets and NDC commitments, Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.aao3354

Cook, B. I., A. P. Williams, J. S. Mankin, R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, D. Singh, (2018). Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States, Journal of Climate 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1

Ault, T., S. St. George, J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, J.S. Mankin, C. Carrillo, B. I. Cook, S. Stevenson, (2018). A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America, Journal of Climate 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1

Swain, D. L., D. Singh, D. Horton, J. S. Mankin, T. Ballard, N. S. Diffenbaugh, (2017). Remote linkages to anomalous winter atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1002/2017JD026575

Mankin, J.S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A. P. Williams, R. Seager (2017). The curious case of projected 21st-century drying but greening in the American West, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1.

Williams, A. P., B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, D. A. Bishop, R. Seager, J. S. Mankin (2017). The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1002/2017JD027523

Diffenbaugh, N.S., D. Singh, J.S. Mankin, A. Charland, M. Haugen, D.E. Horton, D.L. Swain, D.E. Touma, M. Tsiang, B. Rajaratnam (2017). Quantifying the influence of historical global warming on the probability of unprecedented extreme climate events, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.1618082114.

Hydro2K Consortium:J. E. Smerdon, J. Luterbacher, S. Phipps, K.J. Anchukaitis, T.R. Ault, S. Coats, K.M. Cobb, B.I. Cook, C. Colose, T. Felis, A. Gallant, J.H. Jungclaus, B. Konecky, A. LeGrande, S. Lewis, A. S. Lopatka, W. Man, J.S. Mankin, J.T. Maxwell, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, J.W. Partin, D. Singh, N.J. Steiger, S. Stevenson, J.E. Tierney, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang, A. Atwood, L. Andreu-Hayles, S.H. Baek, B. Buckley, E.R. Cook, R. D'Arrigo, S.G. Dee, M. Griffiths, C. Kulkarni, Y. Kushnir, F. Lehner, C. Leland, H.W. Linderholm, A. Okazaki, J. Palmer, E. Piovano, C.C. Raible, M. P. Rao, J. Scheff, G.A. Schmidt, R. Seager, M. Widmann, A.P. Williams, E. Xoplaki, (2017). Comparing data and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Climate of the Past 10.5194/cp-2017-37 

Mankin, J.S., D. Viviroli, M.M. Mekonnen, A.Y. Hoekstra, R. Horton, J.E. Smerdon, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2017). Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326.

Ault, T., J.S. Mankin, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon (2016). Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st Century megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.1600873.

Horton, R., J. S. Mankin, C. Lesk, E. Coffel, C. Raymond (2016). A review of recent advances in re- search on extreme heat events, Current Climate Change Reports, 10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x.

Coats, S. & J. S. Mankin (2016). The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2016GL070445.

Singh, D, D.L. Swain, J. S. Mankin, D.E. Horton, L. Thomas, N.S. Diffenbaugh (2016). Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2016JD025116.

Moore, F., J. S. Mankin, A.H. Becker (2015). Disciplines: Integrating Climate and Social Sciences, Chapter 4 in Climate Cultures: Anthropological Perspectives on Climate Change. Jessica Barnes and Michael Dove (eds). New Haven: Yale University Press.

Mankin, J. S., D. Viviroli, D. Singh, A.Y. Hoekstra, and N.S. Diffenbaugh (2015). The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future, Environmental Research Letters, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114016.

Mankin, J. S. and N.S. Diffenbaugh (2015). Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends, Climate Dynamics, 45 1099-1116, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4.

Siegfried, T., T. Bernauer, R. Guiennet, S. Sellars, A.W. Robertson, J. S. Mankin, P. Bauer-Gottwein (2012). Will Climate Change Exacerbate or Mitigate Water Stress in Central Asia?, Climatic Change, 112 (3-4), 881, DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z.

Mankin, J. S. (2009). Gaming the system: how Afghan opium underpins local power, Journal of International Affairs, 63 (1), 195.

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